Scattershooting low turnout

It's safe to disregard Charles' deep-in-the-weeds spreadsheet mumbling about local turnout and go to the Chronicle (!) for the bottom line.

The latest early voting numbers in Texas show just 119,000 voters our of 9.8 million in the 15 largest counties have sent in ballots either by mail or voted at early voting locations over the first seven days of voting.

Two years ago, in a similar non-presidential election cycle, 210,000 through the first seven days of early voting in those constitutional ballot measures.

In Harris County, 29,000 people have voted out of 2.2 million people according to the Texas Secretary of State's Office. Two years ago after the first seven days of voting, 82,000 had voted out of 2.1 million registered voters.

My Harris County spreadsheet from Stan "Fire" Stanart shows 37.6K EV and mailed ballots as of last night.  Even a non-math major from a non-Catholic school can see that we -- not the royal 'we', as in 'Democrats' (pointedly excluding progressive Democrats, mind you) or 'Astros', but we Texans, or maybe just us Texans who care about civics -- are seeing around a one-tenth of one percent turnout after the first week of early voting, with five more days (two in the can) and election day to go, here in H-Town and across the state.

The only word for that is pathetic.

So it's time to ponder what might happen if some or all of Houston's bond issues fail.  The consequences of the pension reform proposition ('A') have been widely fear-mongered by Mayor Turner, and the Republicans in the Lege have succumbed to it, so I see little to no chance of that result causing widespread panic across town.  My barometer of vox populi, my Nextdoor neighbors (Westbury, Willowbend, Meyerland) seem heavily inclined to vote against the rest, which happens to be the conservative position.  Not a good outcome for Turner's policy or politics, but not cataclysmic.  The bond lawyers would have a less-Merry Christmas, and the mayor and council can probably find a way to shuffle incoming Harvey funds around where they think they need them.

So we'll see.  Update: The Chron's Lisa Falkenberg seems a little nervous about Prop A, and pulls out the pom-poms to push voters to support it.  If there is a quantifiable reason -- not some gut feeling based on ghastly low turnout -- that she would be worried enough about to opine in pleading fashion, then the city is in deep (Harvey-related contaminated) silt.

I need to blog about the Russians; that's coming.

Happy Halloween

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance can't wait to see what tricks and treats Robert Mueller has in his bag as it brings you this week's roundup.  Early birds are watching Paul Manafort surrender this morning.

Off the Kuff looks at the latest UT/Texas Tribune poll and wishes the pollsters had a bit more vision.

Socratic Gadfly first offered his take on the Joe Straus retirement announcement and then excoriated the inside-the-Mopac media gaggle for its use of the phrase "moderate Republican."

The PDid slate -- recommendations in the ongoing election for Texas constitutional amendments, Houston municipal bonds, and HCC and HISD candidates -- is posted at Brains and Eggs.  Stace at Dos Centavos also has some advice for Houston and Harris County voters.

In profiling 2018 Texas progressive candidates Lillian Salerno (TX-32), Tom Wakely (Governor), Derrick Crowe (TX-21), and Dayna Steele (Tx-36), Down With Tyranny! merits inclusion in our Wrangle this week.

The Lewisville Texan Journal, returning to its digital roots, rolled its final print edition last week.

Texas frackquakes are getting mapped now, according to Texas Vox.

The Texas Moratorium Network has photos and video from the March to Abolish the Death Penalty last Saturday, at the Capitol.

jobsanger would like to remind you that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone.

In another crude, racially insensitive display, Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller shares a suicide joke on social media.  Sid Miller IS the joke, folks.

On Facebook, Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller's "joke of the day" is about suicide. #txlege pic.twitter.com/ddVYu8VpaE

— Bobby Blanchard 🌈 (@bobbycblanchard) October 29, 2017

Houstonia has some suggestions for where you can celebrate Día de los Muertos.

 Neil at All People Have Value reviewed the post-hurricane Harvey public art work in Houston called "Toxic Pile of Dirt." APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

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In more state news and lefty blog posts, Houston sports teams made news for all the right reasons and a few wrong ones over the weekend.

Something yuuuuge was missing from Rev, Franklin Graham's revival in Waco, and David Brockman at the Texas Observer took notice.

An undocumented teenager held in federal custody in Brownsville was finally able to exercise her reproductive choice after a month-long court battle.  Doyin Oyeniyi at Texas Monthly provides the account.

The Rivard Report bemoans how unsafe San Antonio is for pedestrians.

Writing for the Houston Chronicle, Dr. Jennifer McQuade of MD Anderson wants to know where our government is in Puerto Rico.  And in 'Techburger', his new blog for the Chronicle, Dwight Silverman gives four reasons why Amazon Key is a bad idea.

Space City Weather examines the Harris County proposals for flood mitigation.

Wes Ferguson at the Daily Post sees fewer Texas high schoolers interested in playing football.

Aaron West at Free Press Houston has more on the history of the three skinheads arrested in Florida for firing a gun at protestors of the Richard Spencer rally.

Shannon Watts, the founder of Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America, eulogizes Catherine Vance, a 40-year-old gun safety advocate from Houston who passed away a few days ago.

And Harry Hamid has a few night anthems of a ghoul.

Sunday Funnies

82% of Democrats believe "Russia-backed" content on social media affected 2016 election outcome; Clinton campaign and DNC helped pay for Steele dossier

Joe Straus quits Texas House

The so-called sane Republicans -- as Charles Pierce said yesterday about Jeff Flake and Bob Corker -- are going to have to come up with a better response than just running away.  Harvey Kronberg crams as much into his executive summary of the past ten months as one can into two paragraphs.

Speaker Joe Straus today stunned even his closest colleagues with his announcement that he would not seek re-election to his seat in the House. This after polling in the field showed that even his weakest San Antonio precincts were solidly behind him. In addition, there was no possible math that did not have him re-elected to lead the House.

While his low opinion of the hysteria-based rhetoric of other statewide officials and the off the rails priorities of the special session (many but for his efforts) would have further made the recovery of the Gulf Coast even more protracted than it would otherwise be were barely camouflaged, one of the great stings had to be Governor Greg Abbott reassuring CEOs that Straus would kill the bathroom bill at the same time he was rallying pastors to sermonize on its behalf from the pulpit.

It sounds as if -- in a run-on sentence of massive proportions -- HK thinks the governor is going to have be the grown-up and stop pandering to the MAGA base of the TXGOP.  Harvey has lots more Austin connections than me, so I'm sure he has a basis for believing that.  But as AF One landed in Dallas this afternoon, the governor spun his wheels on the tarmac to get in the picture with Trump.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott greets Trump after he exits Air Force One at Love Field. Trump in town for fundraiser https://t.co/FqMFV1eKtG pic.twitter.com/rJMfed9ErS

— FOX 4 NEWS (@FOX4) October 25, 2017

It's truly remarkable watching a crippled man play both sides of the Texas Republican Party's freak right wing against the middle, or the left, or whatever the soon-to-be former-Straus Caucus calls themselves ('moderate' just doesn't work for me).  One of these days his manipulation of the ignorant is going to blow up in his face.  That day is still a ways off.

As to the news: conservative watchers mostly screamed with glee, while Democrats either cried their eyes out or shat their drawers in unmitigated terror.  Let the parlor games begin.

-- Do I think Straus has plans to shoot his $10 million dollar wad on something besides, to quote former TDP chair Boyd Richie from 2006, "a few select Texas House races"?  All snark aside, I certainly hope so.  Surely Joe isn't slinking away into retirement just to be another million-dollar lobbyist, right?  Right?

Update: Tilove at the Statesman echoes Straus: "I don't think so."

-- Where does his top lieutenant, Byron Cook, who bailed out right behind the Speaker this morning, fit in to any of this?  The same cryptic 'look for other ways to serve Texas' line was in his resignation letter.

Chris Hooks got paid a little early this week.

John Zerwas, a moderate who once flirted with supporting Medicaid expansion, today announced his bid to (replace Straus as Speaker), and Chris Turner, the chair of the House Democratic Caucus, quickly signaled a willingness to deliver the caucus’ votes to the best possible contender. That would mean, hypothetically, that Zerwas will need some 15-25 Republican votes to clinch it in the way Straus once did. That seems very doable — particularly if Democrats are able to make real gains in the next general election, in what should be a favorable climate — but no one can say.

"No one can say."   Pfffft.  He'd know better than that (he means, of course, that early speculation about what might occur is as reliable as the Texas Tribune's polling) if he didn't have me muted on Twitter, the putz.

One thing we can say is that the legacy and self-described "very conservative Democrat" who is 'exploring' a run for governor got his news completely Bigfooted by the Speaker's sudden withdrawal today.  Too bad.  Maybe there's a spot for him somewhere on Joe Straus' independent ticket.

The P-Did slate for this year's election

My sample ballot, obtained at HarrisVotes.com, contains seven state constitutional amendments, five municipal propositions, and one race with three candidates vying for the seat of the disgraced and convicted Chris Oliver on Houston Community College's Board of Trustees.  Here's the Chronicle with the overview of that contest.

David Jaroszewski said he was "sickened" when he saw that a Houston Community College trustee pleaded guilty to accepting bribes connected to system contracts earlier this year.

"This isn't right," the longtime community college instructor remembers thinking. He soon would put his name on the ballot to replace Chris Oliver, the District IX trustee who is awaiting sentencing.

Jaroszewski, 64, is one of eight candidates running for three HCC trustee positions this fall. Candidates must convince voters they are best suited to help lead a system that has seen fluctuating enrollment, lawsuits originating from a board member and Oliver's bribery conviction in the last two years.

Early voting for the Nov. 7 election begins (today).

"The public wants a community college that doesn't waste money. The public wants a community college that educates people. … As a trustee, you look at these and (you) can't say it's not my problem. It is my problem," said Jaroszewski, a self-described conservative who teaches paralegal studies at Lee College in Baytown.

Jaroszewski is running against Eugene "Gene" Pack, a retired auto broker, and Pretta VanDible Stallworth, a business consultant, for the District IX seat that covers southwest Houston.

Oliver, who pleaded guilty to taking $12,000 in Visa gift cards and cash, promising to use his position to help a contractor secure new HCC work, is not running for re-election. His sentencing is in November.

Stallworth, 59, and Pack, 65, did not respond to requests for comment.

Bold emphasis and embedded linkage in the excerpt above and below is mine.  Despite her appallingly low online profile -- no website, one Tweet in September, no Facebook except as mentioned by others -- Stallworth's past experience as trustee and her endorsements (listed following and from my state senator and city council member) are enough to earn my vote.

On his website, Pack has pledged to enhance financial aid policies to keep students enrolled after Hurricane Harvey if he is elected.

He also proposed several accountability measures for the board, including shortening trustee term lengths to four years from six and pushing for ethics reform in board contracts and procurement.

Stallworth, a former HCC trustee from 1989 through 1993, was endorsed by the Harris County Young Democrats and the Houston GLBT Political Caucus PAC.

She said in the League of Women Voters of Houston election guide that she would advocate for increased ethics training for board members. Administrators should review employer needs regularly to assess what HCC should teach, she said.

The LWV guide (Adobe Reader files in English and Spanish) is comprehensive, even including an explanation of general obligation bonds for the tireless, most well-informed voter.  More on the other HCC races at the Chron link, and more on amendments ('propositions', numbered on your ballot), municipal proposals ('propositions', identified alphabetically), and races here.  There is no HISD board race on my ballot, so check the guide above or take the HGLBT Caucus' recommendations (I occasionally pick a bone with them, but not this time).

I'm going to follow Daniel Williams' recommendations and vote against Prop 2, Prop 4, and Prop 6, and for 1, 3, 5, and 7.  That's easy enough: yes on the odd-numbered ones, no on the evens.

Finally, with respect to the city's bond issues -- A ($1.01 billion to remediate HPD and city employee pensions), B ($159 million for new and existing police stations and firehouses and equipment) C ($104 million for parks, recreational facilities, bayous, and hike/bike trails), D ($109 million for facilities devoted to public health and wellness and sanitation and the like), and E ($123 million for libraries) -- I will not vote to spite this mayor, who has demonstrated a disturbing animosity toward the city's firefighters on several occasions, including preventing, indirectly or otherwise, their own pay raise proposition from appearing on this ballot.

That would be stooping to his level.  Vote 'for' the city's five bond proposals, despite the fact that they enrich the wealthiest bond lawyers in town, provide a convenient excuse to house more free military hardware for the cops (who have too much as it is), and build urban sanctuaries for inner city dwellers of the most comfortable, Caucasian persuasion while doing nothing for the least among us.

As an atheist, I would like to see more Christ-like conduct out of our city leaders -- not just the hypocrisy-riddled Republicans -- so if a cleaner, safer Houston with a few more places for children to play and read is the ever-so-slightly improved result of all this debt ... that's not a bad thing.

Update: The conservative opponents of the city bonds make their case at Texas Monitor, and unfortunately for Mayor Turner, et.al., it's persuasive.

The Weekly Wrangle

Some of the Texas Progressive Alliance are big baseball fans and some aren't, but all of us tip our caps to the Houston Astros, who delivered a thrilling victory over the New York Yankees in the American League championship's seventh game.  The Astros will face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series, beginning tomorrow night.

Off the Kuff noted the plethora of Democratic Congressional candidates, and jobsanger cited Progress Texas for some charts that show Democrats gaining voters in Texas.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston weighed in on the money race in CD-7, and suggested a couple of candidates *cough*Cargas*cough* drop out.

Daniel Williams has a thorough explainer for the seven state constitutional amendments on your ballot in this fall's election.

All five former US presidents -- and Lady Gaga -- gathered in College Station for a benefit for hurricane relief efforts in Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands, according to the Texas Tribune.

SocraticGadfly took note of the latest stupidity of Eddie Bernice Johnson, plus her history, and thinks she should stop running for Congress and needs a Green challenger if nothing else.

"The Eleven", a documentary about the hunt for the murderer of young women in Galveston County in the 70's, was previewed by PDiddie at Brains and Eggs.

Neil at All People Have Value reviewed important public art in Houston. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

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More Texas news and blog posts!

In Austin last Friday, Gus Bova of the Texas Observer reported that US Attorney General Jeff Sessions blasted undocumented immigrant "pedophiles",  "drug dealers", and "sanctuary cities", while protestors outside chanted, held signs that said 'Sanctuary for All' and laid a trampled Klansman's robe in front of Sessions' motorcade, which he drove over as he departed.

Better Texas Blog has concerns about our retirement savings shortfall, and calls for support of Prop 7, on the ballot in the ongoing elections.

Somervell County Salon posts a few logical fallacy resources.

A fight over Texas barbecue is smoldering in Austin, and PoliTex sees Ag Commissioner Sid Miller right in the middle of it.

Free Press Houston reported that a Pasadena metal band member was one of three Texans charged with attempted murder after a shot was fired at anti-Nazi protestors in Gainesville, Florida, where white nationalist Richard Spencer was speaking.

Pages of Victory declares that he is not a Russian bot after disclosing that much of his blog traffic comes from ... you guessed it.

And Leif Reigstad at The Daily Post noticed that Ted Cruz got doused with Dr. Pepper in a Senate hearing, and his response was something the Zodiac Killer would do.

Sunday "What We Signed Up For" Funnies

'The Eleven'

Recommended viewing.

Throughout the 1970s, the cities in and around Galveston County, Texas were haunted by the brutal murders of eleven teenage girls. Journalist Lise Olsen and retired police detective Fred Paige are revisiting these cases after discovering a confession letter from inmate Edward Harold Bell, who is currently serving a 70-year sentence for an unrelated murder. In his chilling confession, Bell describes some of the girls’ deaths in gruesome detail and refers to many of the victims by name. Yet in the investigators’ exclusive face-to-face interviews with Bell, he denies the written confession, proving that linking him to the 45-year-old murders will be a formidable challenge. With a parole hearing for Bell looming this fall, Olsen and Paige must try to piece together evidence that demonstrates a definitive link between the convicted killer and girls he calls ‘the eleven who went to heaven’ before he has the possibility to walk free.

Olsen has a more in-depth preview of the series at Texas Monthly. And you can watch last night's opening two-parter here.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance reminds you that there's an election coming up in a few weeks (and early voting begins next week).

Off the Kuff says that if giving a tax break to homeowners affected by natural disasters is a priority, the state should cover the cost of that tax break to counties and school districts.

SocraticGadfly looks at a couple of recent pieces by a business columnist at the Chronic, and wonders how many of them apply there and if that will ever be asked?

How about Texas Democrats ask Sylvester Turner to run for governor, PDiddie at Brains and Eggs helpfully suggested.

jobsanger posts eleven steps to a healthier (and fairer) US economy.

Grits for Breakfast knows that criticism of police unions is warranted, but disagrees with the proposed solutions.

Murray Polner at The Rag Blog shares a concise summary of his views on the Vietnam war, motivated by Ken Burns' documentary.

In the Texas Observer's Strangest State roundup, you can read about a cow in Kerrville that looks like KISS rocker Gene Simmons.

The Texas Energy Department's collation of news includes a reminder that Rick Perry is always good for a joke, especially when he's the butt of it.

Neil at All People Have Value attended the weekly Tuesday protest outside the Houston office of Senator John Cornyn.  Senator Cornyn is doing a bad job.  APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

And the Lewisville Texan Journal shares the Mom of No's story about teaching the Son of Never Stops Eating how to speak up at a city council meeting.

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More Texas news and blog posts!

The Fort Worth Star-Telegram's PoliTex blog reports that over 6,000 inmates in the Texas Criminal Justice System pooled their commissary funds totaling nearly $54,000 and donated it to Hurricane Harvey relief efforts.

The Rivard Report shares Ross Ramsey (of the Texas Tribune)'s analysis of bathrooms, business interests, and ballots.

The TexTrib also was first with the news that a federal judge ruled Greg Abbott violated the First Amendment when he ordered a mock Nativity scene removed from the Capitol two years ago.

Bonddad's most recent thought for Sunday regards the rule of gerontocracy.

Chris Ladd at Political Orphans asserts that Democrats will no more recognize -- or effectively oppose -- the rise of their own Trump than Republicans did.

Elizabeth Lewis at Burkablog believes we are misdiagnosing the cause of gun violence.

Better Texas Blog dives into the latest revenue estimate from the state's comptroller, Glenn Hegar.

The TSTA Blog laments the lack of role models at the top of our government.

Therese Odell at Foolish Watcher gamely explains what the First Amendment is.

Grant Brisbee at SB Nation isn't a Texan, but he truly gets what the Astros mean to the city of Houston at this moment.

And Harry Hamid has a tale about mutatis mutandis (if you need to look up the meaning -- like I did -- here you go).

Sunday Funnies

Scattershooting Ted Cruz

-- He may not get primaried from the Breitbart right, but he might get primaried from the right-wing Jesus freaks.  Such rich, creamy irony.  Backstory repeated for those who don't follow or recall these 2016 GOP machinations.

After losing the nomination to Donald Trump, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz delivered a speech at the 2016 Republican National Convention that was markedly unenthusiastic about the party’s presidential candidate. Cruz congratulated Trump on winning the nomination, but in over twenty-five minutes of speaking about conservative values he failed to endorse Trump for president. It was a gamble for the 2020 election. By the time Cruz reached the end of his speech, however, delegates booed and shouted, “Say his name!”

Cruz eventually endorsed Trump via a Facebook post two months later, but only after Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick hinted that he would find a primary opponent for Cruz if he didn’t. After the less-than-prime-time endorsement, Patrick, who was Trump’s Texas chairman, backed off.

Now it looks as if the speech might draw Cruz a potentially substantial opponent after all. Bruce K. Jacobson Jr., vice president of media for LIFE Outreach International and an aide to televangelist James Robison and his Life Today television network, told me that the convention speech has motivated him to seriously consider challenging Cruz in next year’s primary. Cruz had signed a pledge to support the party’s nominee, Jacobson said, but then didn’t follow through at the convention. “I’m concerned about anybody who doesn’t keep their word. I’ve very concerned about that. In Texas, when we give our word, it’s our word,” Jacobson said.

Brother Jacobson can't have been a Texas Republican for very long, or else he has a mote -- probably a beam -- in both eyes with respect to Texas Republicans keeping their word.

Although Jacobson declined to comment on his friendship with former Republican presidential candidates Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, Republican blogger Erick Erickson claims they recruited Jacobson as payback to Cruz for defeating them in the Iowa presidential caucuses. “Cruz already has one establishment hack coming after him from the left within the GOP primary,” Erickson wrote in the post. “The guy is a lawyer who claims Cruz isn’t playing well with Mitch McConnell. Now we’re going to get this guy pretending to come at Cruz from the right. The media will love both so they can attack Cruz from all sides. But if I were Cruz, I’d be looking around thinking I’ve got attacks from left and from pretend right, so I must be doing something actually right.”

Yeahno, Erick.  There's more there about Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the link between her father and Trump that may be the conduit for payback, and Cruz's two announced-so-far challengers, but Jacobson would be a real problem for Lyin' Ted.  You'll need lots more popcorn if this develops, and you should bookmark RG Ratcliffe's posts as must-reads even if it doesn't.

Today I'll wager that Poop wins his primary by something on the order of 67%-75%.

-- The money race between Cruz and Beto O'Rourke is ... not quite even if you count COH (scroll to the bottom), but who cares besides the consultants Beto claims he's not hiring and Kuff and the consultants -- aspiring and incompetent and all in-between -- who read his blog?  Money isn't going to have a damn thing to do with who wins this race a year from now.

Beto has been journalistically fellated by Chris Hooks and Vox and several others of late, and they've dutifully used the trope "Texas is a non-voting state" as if this were breaking news.  My issues with O'Rourke are that he is of the "New Democrat/Blue Dog" variety, and both his efforts and his recent votes reflect that.  Being mousy in saying 'healthcare is a human right' isn't helping, either; believing that everybody needs to buy in and for-profit hospitals have to remain part of the 'Medicare for All' equation doesn't quite meet the definition of a human right, does it?  He seems to be fooling some people (again, scroll down) with this double talk, but he ain't foolin' me.  I simply can't vote for O'Rourke if he continues obfuscating on this issue.

YMMV, of course.